Why NVIDIA is our Top Pick heading into earnings



We think the recent selloff is a good entry point, as despite supply constraints, we still expect a meaningful beat and raise quarter - and, more importantly, strong visibility over the next 3- 4 quarters. NVIDIA remains our Top Pick, with a backdrop of the massive shift in spending towards AI, and a fairly exceptional supply demand imbalance that should persist for the next several quarters; we think the recent selloff is a good entry point. Before digging into the tactical nuances of trying to predict the magnitude of near-term upside, it's worth nothing how unusual this situation is. Last quarter's guidance for $4 bn in revenue upside was the largest single increase in one quarter in semiconductor history, and we expect healthy upside to that number; yet, per our conversations and public data points, less than half of the current demand is being met. Given that backdrop, it seems clear that the implied $7.5 bn in quarterly data center revenue is trending to $15 bn+ over the next few quarters, which is our primary focus driving enthusiasm for the stock. We would expect durable steady growth beyond that as well, though the current supply chain shortage will likely be less of a factor by 2h24 given that overall industry conditions are oversupplied, with the exception of narrow specialty technologies to support the existing ramps. We are getting dozens of inquiries each day about buy side expectations for October; we expect a very positive outlook, but it's important to recognize that the exact revenue number in October is less important than the overall trajectory. October shipments are clearly gated by supply, and while we do expect strong sequential growth, the calculus of triangulating exact q/q supply growth remains tricky, as we articulated last week (NVDA: thoughts on an OEM customer guiding for sequential decline). A material amount of July quarter shipments came out of inventory - mostly the legacy A100 parts - so builds need to be up materially for October to show outsized growth. Triangulating the exact level of revenues is therefore somewhat tricky, though with management confidence at high levels, generally positive indications about the supply chain overall, and the positive mix benefit of shifting from A100 to H100, we still think growth is strong.


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奇鋐
2023-12-06